The comprehensive military operations conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran since February 28, 2026, are creating a seismic tremor not only in the Middle East but across global geopolitical fault lines. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the stranding of hundreds of merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf demonstrate that the dimensions of the crisis have long surpassed local boundaries.
The situation we are confronting is the most severe phase of a containment strategy that deliberately targets global supply chains, energy security, and, most importantly, the rise of Asia.
The Strategic Pattern of Containment: From Venezuela to Iran
Viewed from a broader perspective, since the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), new crises have been systematically engineered along the project's maritime, land, and railway routes. Just as in the Venezuela operation, the primary motivation behind this devastating intervention against Iran, undertaken without a UN resolution, is the destruction of China's energy and trade connections. Both countries are among China's most critical energy suppliers. The US is attempting to confine China within an increasingly tightening circle. Energy prices, skyrocketing due to the war, have already begun to disrupt global trade by multiplying the production costs of energy-dependent countries.
Regional Dynamics: Restrained Actors and the Risks of Provocation
The direct involvement of regional countries in the war or the initiation of a ground offensive is a highly remote possibility under the current conjuncture. Such a scenario would lead to insurmountable losses for both the regional countries and the US-Israel bloc.
On the other hand, although the Gulf states hosting US bases are adversely affected by the war, they lack the capacity to steer its course. However, this state of helplessness may propel Gulf capitals toward a much deeper rapprochement with China regarding stability and peacebuilding. In Europe, both governments and the public are experiencing growing unease over this unilateral intervention launched without a UN resolution.
It is rational for Turkey and Azerbaijan, which Iran has not directly targeted thus far, to remain outside the conflict zone. From the outset, Turkey has been utilizing its diplomatic weight to de-escalate the crisis by calling on the parties to exercise restraint. Nevertheless, Israel's desire to regionalize the war necessitates the highest level of vigilance against potential false flag operations that might be planned to drag regional countries into the conflict. Furthermore, the efforts of the US and Israel to incite ethnic groups within Iran have thus far proven fruitless; the Tehran administration maintains its capability to preserve its internal authority and territorial integrity.
The global supply chain architecture has experienced an unprecedented contraction over the past few years. Initially, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the Northern Corridor connecting Europe to Asia was severely disrupted and largely lost its functionality. Now, with the Iran War that began on February 28, 2026, the Southern Corridor has become gridlocked, and the Hormuz-Red Sea maritime routes have been paralyzed by the collapse of civilian maritime insurance.
Amidst all this geopolitical debris, the Middle Corridor, which crosses the Caspian and extends to Europe via Turkey, has become not merely an alternative for the BRI under current conditions, but the safest and most vital trade route left standing. This historical rupture has made it an imperative necessity to urgently increase the capacity of the Middle Corridor and to safeguard stability along this line, not only by regional countries but also by the countries at the Western and Eastern extremities of the corridor. The landscape created by the crisis has opened an indispensable window for the development of infrastructural investments, customs integrations, and economic relations between China and Turkey.
Recommendations and Projections
International market data indicate that the crisis is deepening. Against the possibility of a prolonged war, the following steps and scenarios must be seriously considered in the context of regional security, economic stability, and the future of the BRI:
- Regional Security and Stability Mechanisms: The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and the Iranian routes have been suspended for an indefinite period. This situation necessitates the integration of the Middle Corridor with the Development Road project, which connects Turkey to the Gulf via Iraq, and requires regional actors to establish joint security shields along these routes. To prevent the conflict from spilling over into neighboring countries, a new diplomatic mediation bloc must be established under the leadership of countries like Turkey and China.
- Economic Stability and Financial Measures: The rapid surge in the price per barrel of oil following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz carries the risk of dragging the world into a 2008-style inflationary shock and recession. While Russia is expected to generate short-term revenue from this oil crisis, it is imperative for countries outside the Atlantic bloc to develop alternative commercial and financial solutions to counterbalance their energy and logistics costs.
- Plausible Scenarios: In the event that the war transforms into a war of attrition and is prolonged, the US presence in the region will become questionable in the eyes of its Gulf allies. This scenario will compel countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to gradually distance their security architectures from the West. This war has once again exposed the sheer magnitude of the threat that the Western-centric financial and security architecture poses to the Global South. The weaponization of the dollar and arbitrary military interventions will inevitably accelerate the expansion and deepening perspective of platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. Nations will increasingly place SWIFT alternatives and trade in local currencies on their agendas.
Conclusion: The Imperative of a Proactive Policy for China
This entire landscape harbors a clear message for the People's Republic of China: Remaining a spectator or providing merely economic responses in the face of US containment and weakening attempts is no longer sufficient. In accordance with its rising global power, China is forced to take deterrent measures against external threats, and construct a foreign policy architecture that is more effective, proactive, and serves as a shield.